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Showing posts from May, 2021

A preview on the onset of Indian monsoon 2021

Source: IMD Oh, God! It’s too scorching.. When will the rain bring relief?  The advancement of the southwest monsoon over the Indian mainland is usually marked by monsoon onset over Kerala. As soon as the monsoon progresses northward, relief from the scorching summer temperatures will be experienced over the areas. Climatologically, the Southwest monsoon sets over Kerala on 1st June with a standard deviation of about 7 days.  This year, the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala is likely to be on 31st May with a model error of ± 4 days.  Wait! Which model are you talking about?  India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala from 2005 onwards. It uses 6 predictors in the models, these are Minimum Temperatures over North-west India, Premonsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula, Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) over south China Sea, Lower tropospheric zonal wind over the southeast Indian Ocean, up